No Snow in Sight

There will be another storm this weekend heading towards the Great Lakes. This storm will have mild air ahead of it, to bring the area mostly rain to the tri-state area on New Years Day. Although, there may be a brief period of sleet and/or freezing rain in the higher elevations NW of NYC on New Year's Eve night.

High tempatures should remain a few degrees above normal throughout the period. At this time, there are no signs of any artic air or snowstorms for the next 2 or 3 weeks.

Back to tristate weather:

http://www.tristateweatherboard.com/

Wet Christmas Night

There will be another storm coming for Christmas night into Tuesday morning from the gulf of mexico. Models are still inconsistent on a exact storm track, but most models track this storm to our west and without cold air in place, it looks like it will be all rain for most of the tri-state area. As the storm intensifies rapidly over upstate NY or New England, colder air will rush in behind the storm late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and their could be some flurries, especially north of NYC.

Back to tristate weather:

http://www.tristateweatherboard.com/

Saturday - Rain, 12/25 - 12/27 Most Likely Rain

The scenerio discussed in the prevous post for the storm on 12/23 has not changed on the models. It looks like it will be rain for the entire area, and heavy at times on Saturday.

After that storm it will turn drier and cooler for X-mas eve, but still be a little above normal. Which will set us for the next potential storm sometime between the X-mas and the 27. The models show storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico and slowly moving up the coast, tracking to our south and east during that time frame. At this time, it appears most likely to be all rain, due to the lack of cold air, but it's still more than 5 days away and I will continue to watch it. This morning's GFS makes it a little more interesting.

Colder Mid-Week than Milder through X-Mas, Little Chance of Snow

All the models continue to show the cold front passing through area Monday night moving well to the south on Tuesday, with low pressure developing well south and east us. So I now expect Tuesday be drier and turn colder. On Wednesday the core of cold air be on top of us, temps may not make it out of the 30's. Then after that, High pressure begins to move offshore and we get into a SW flow that will bring in milder into the area for late week and into next weekend.

This means that our next storm coming in on 12/22 and 12/23 will more likely bring us rain than snow. After looking at the models since yesterday, it doesn't appear at this time we will be tapping enough of cold air from Canada to produce an appreciable snowfall here. They have seemed to reach a consensus that one storm developing over the SW states on Wednesday should move NE through the Mid-West and Western Great Lakes on Friday, while a secondary storm forms along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday. This should be bring rain into area Friday night and Saturday. Of course, this storm is still more than 5 days away, and things still could change.

As for X-mas day, looks like it will be mild until another cold front move through later in day or at night. The 0z GFS shows another storm coming up from the south but it looks mild enough for mainly rain as well. A white christmas looks unlikely at this point.

Back to tristate weather:

http://www.tristateweatherboard.com/

12/19 Storm Still Possible, 12/22 and Beyond Increasingly Uncertain

The models have trended to bring the cold front moving through the area early Tuesday further to the south and now show low pressure development well south and east of this area. If this true will have a chance of a few showers early Tues, before it turns drier and colder the rest of the day. However, I'm not ready to accept, as I suspect the models may be lowering the heights over the over the east coast too much, as the SE Ridge has been unusually strong so far this month. So at this time, I still low pressure to form over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday morning and quickly move off the Mid-Atlantic coast probably just south LI by Tuesday evening. Rain will fall on Tuesday, with a possiblity of mix or changeover to wet snow before it end Tuesday night, as the low begins to deepen offshore and wraps cold air behind it. I will be looking at future runs of the models this weekend to see if the trends continue to show the former solution.

As for 12/22 and beyond, it is becoming increasing certain what is going to happen around here. The models inconsistent in there solutions for the potential major storm around during this period, and now show several weaker systems that could effect our area. One system could into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at end of the week, bringing us mainly rain. Another system could develop along the east coast closer to X-mas and bring us some rain and/or snow. And perhaps another system a couple days after that one. Until they show more consistent solutions, ( for about 3 runs or so) I can't believe anything at this time, except that period looks potentially colder and stormier. Alot here may also depend on what happens with 12/19 storm and how they handle that one.

Back to tristate weather:

www.tristateweatherboard.com

12/19 and 12/23 Storm Threats

Not much has changed on my thinking for the storm mid-week which looks like it may come a day earlier on 12/19. The models have been waffling a somewhat on their solutions since yesterday, but overall still expect a wave of low pressure to form along the front that will stall to our south and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. I don't believe the storm will going to cutting through the Great Lakes as 18z GFS from yesterday showed. Precipitation looks like it will be rain across most of the area on late Monday night and Tuesday, but as the low pressure moves off the coast, and possibly deepens as shown by the 0z ECWMF last night and 12z GFS yesterday, colder air may come behind storm and change the rain to snow or flurries before ending late Tues. or Tuesday night, especially NW of NYC. At this time, this doesn't appear to be a signficant snowfall for this area.

The threat for a major storm producing alot of rain or snow still exists on 12/23 (maybe as early as 12/22 per 0z EC and 6z GFS?) but the models have yet to be consistent on a track or scenerio for this event and probably won't for sometime.

Back to tristate weather:

www.tristateweatherboard.com

Two Potential Winter Storms 12/20 and 12/23 - 12/24

The rest of this week and early next week will be mild with high temps in the upper 50's to around 60. So any precip coming through this period will be rain. However a high pressure from Northern Canada will start moving into the Midwest and then the Northeast next week, ushering in somewhat colder air, as the pacific jet begins to split and buckle the flow from NW to SE.

On Tuesday, the 0z GFS and 0z ECMWF shows a cold front moving through our area and stall to our south, near the Mason-Dixon line. Temps will drop from the 50's early to the 40's by end of day and into the 30's at night. On Wednesday, the front will being to move back to north as a wave low pressure forms along it and moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Warm air overunning the cooler air cause precipation to develop ahead of this front over the are late Tuesday At this time it appears to ME, that it will be remain warm enough for a cold rain along the coast, including NYC and surrounding suburbs, while some snow and/or ice could fall in NW New Jersey and Lower Hudson Valley (north of the Tappen Zee Bridge) on Wednesday. However if the front slips a little further south, we may be able get enough cold air down to the coast for snow or a mix. This is all VERY early and is subject to change. But this is the scenerio, that I believe is most likely right now.

On 12/23 -12/24 there is a potential for a major storm to develop along the east coast as the northern branch of the jet allow more amplification in the Eastern US and shortwave energy from the southern branch moves eastward. It's no use trying to figure out the details at this time as there will probably be changes on each run of the models. However the 0z GFS and 0z ECMWF close off a 500mb low and develop a storm in the southern states and move it northeastward. Whether we get alot of rain or snow, highly depends on what track this storm takes and how much cold air is around at the time. We'll just have to wait and see on future runs.

Back to tristate weather:

www.tristateweatherboard.com

No Winter Storms on the Horizon

The weather pattern looks benign at this point. There will be a strong cold front passing through the area on Thursday with some snow showers or flurries Thursday night and Friday morning possible. There was a potential of a storm developing along this front, but that looks like it will be too far to our north and east. Friday will be a very cold day with temps not getting above freezing. But the airmass will moderate over the weekend and next week looks mild, with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Some of the models are showing another storm late next week, but it's looks to be taking an inland track with just rain for our area at this time.

Back to tristate weather:

www.tristateweatherboard.com

Storm Cancel

The 12z models shifted the precip shield of this storm east today and the 18z models continued that trend. After looking at satellite imagery and radar trends, I've decided to cancel the snowfall amounts from earlier. This storm doesn't appear to be getting it's act together very quickly as rainfall appears more showery over Virginia and NC than steady. It is also moving towards NE, which means much of it may pass to our south. There is a chance of rain or snow showers late tonight and tomorrow morning, may come this far north, but I don't expect any accumulation anywhere. Most areas NW of NYC will probably remain dry.

Update on Monday Storm

Not much has changed this morning. Still looks like the storm will be too far our east to give most of tri-state area any significant snowfall. The GFS wants to bring back more precip further west but it may be overdoing this as it appears best lift will be over further S & E. I have a snowfall map. Snowfall amounts will mainly be on grassy areas:

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5267/snowfallmapye2.png

A Little Snow on Monday

Basically this event on Monday will be a very minor event for most of the tri-state area. 12z NAM and GFS trended east with the storm and 18z runs showed little change. At this time, it appears that this storm will be too far east and too progressive to give us any significant precip around here. Another shortwave or upstream kicker will prevent the trough in the east going neutral, then negative in time to allow this storm to turn up the coast. Here's what I expect as of now:

I expect precip to arrive later tomorrow night as light rain for coastal areas, including NYC and LI, then it should change to wet snow during the morning hours on Monday, before ending by early afternoon. I expect accumulations, mainly on grassy areas, to be less than 1" for NYC, Southern Westchester, and Nassau County. Western Suffolk and SW Conn may see around an inch, while Eastern Suffolk and SE Conn. could see 1" - 2" as they will be closest to the storm. Snow will be slushy and most pavements will be wet.

Everywhere else, I expect a very light snow or just flurries, possibly mixed with raindrops when it starts tomorrow night and ending Monday morning. I expect no more than a dusting or a slushy coating in some spots.

There is still time for things to change and I will update if there are changes.

Welcome...

I will posting my thoughts and forecasts here from time to time here about the significant weather events for the NY/NJ/Conn tri-state area.

Our first potential for a winter storm this season will be on Sunday night into Monday. As of now, it is too hard for me to forecast snowfall amounts as the models continue to flip back and forth on the storm track and the synoptics. After yesterday's trend closer to the coast, the models last night shifted back east again, keeping most significant precip east of our area. This morning 6z runs have now shifted back west. However, this storm doesn't appear that it will give us a significant snowfall at this time, as precip types will be an issue and it will be a quick mover. I will have an update later.